Institute

SAINT LEO – Florida Republicans asked to think about the next major election in their lives— coming in 2018—favor current Governor Rick Scott above others named as possible GOP nominees to run for U.S. Senate, a new Saint Leo University Polling Institute  (http://polls.saintleo.edu) survey shows.

The poll of 501 Florida residents was completed November 27 through November 30, 2016.

Republicans in the sample were asked whom they could support in a primary for the six-year term for U.S. Senate. The seat is currently held by three-term Democratic incumbent Senator Bill Nelson.

If Florida Governor Scott wanted to be the GOP candidate, 41 percent of the Republicans surveyed said they could support him. Scott is prevented by term limits from seeking the office of governor again. He has been elected twice, consecutively.

After Scott, the next most common answer was “unsure or don’t know,” selected by 33.1 percent. Another 11.2 percent said they wanted “someone else” instead of the names presented. The choices shown were solely names, without current political offices or occupations attached.

Outgoing Republican Congressman David Jolly of St. Petersburg, who lost his bid to return to the U.S. House of Representatives, was supported by 6.2 percent. The other names presented were current officeholders, all even at less than 3 percent: U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis of Ponte Vedra Beach on Florida’s east coast; Carlos Lopez-Cantera, lieutenant governor under Scott; and U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney of Okeechobee.

“Clearly Rick Scott is benefitting from the fact that he is the most well-known of the Republicans seeking to unseat Bill Nelson,” said Saint Leo University Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando. “When facing off against the candidates who sought the GOP nomination before Marco Rubio decided to run for re-election, he’s dominating against candidates […]

SAINT LEO, FL – Pope Francis continues to post a high favorability rating, according to a new Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu) survey. Poll respondents were asked if their opinion of the pope is strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or not at all favorable.

While his popularity dipped slightly to 62.6 percent overall, the poll shows among Catholics, 85.8 percent favorability, which is up slightly from 84.2 in September 2016, but down from 87.5 percent in the June 2016 poll.

In the time between polls, Pope Francis ended the Jubilee Year of Mercy, which began on the feast of the Immaculate Conception, December 8, 2015. “The attention given to its closing at the end of November may have drawn more attention to Pope Francis and positively affected his favorability rating among Catholics,” said Dr. Marc Pugliese, Saint Leo University assistant professor of theology and religion.

According to Saint Leo’s most recent poll, among 1,001 respondents, 62.6 percent hold a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Pope Francis. The September poll showed his favorability at 65.4 percent. In June 2016, it was 68.9 percent. The highest percentage 75.8 percent, which Pope Francis received in Saint Leo’s poll conducted in September 2015 after his visit to the United States.

“The pope has not been as ‘publicly active’ since September 2016 as he had been the year before in September,” Pugliese said, and this could account for a slight decline in Pope Francis’ favorability rating among the general population.

On September 4, 2016, he canonized Mother Teresa of Calcutta. “Many people—not just Catholics and religious people in general, but even those who are not religious—had great respect and admiration for Mother Teresa.”

The second factor contributing to the slight dip could be […]

Likely Voters Continue to Support Medical Marijuana and Property-Tax Ballot Measures

SAINT LEO, FL – A new Florida survey from the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu)  found continued strong support for all the proposed amendments to the Florida state constitution, with the notable erosion of popularity for the measure concerning consumers and solar energy. Controversy erupted over this measure on social media, and as the election has drawn closer, major newspaper editorial boards across the state have opposed the measure and termed it misleading.

In Florida, at least 60 percent of the voters have to approve a ballot measure for it to pass. During this election, Florida voters will be presented with four measures. The polling institute has been tracked public sentiment on all four measures during the summer. And in general, voters have favored the other measures to make medical marijuana available for a range of conditions under a physician’s care, and for certain property tax breaks for first responders and senior citizens.

The solar issue is the only one where the direction of public sentiment has changed course by more than 20 points. The most recent survey was conducted online from October 22 through October 26 among 1,028 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

“This movement away from support for Amendment 1 is a sign that the social media campaign is working,” said Frank Orlando, political scientist and director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.

“Opponents of Amendment 1 clearly don’t have the financial power that the utility companies do, but they’ve been very effective at getting their message out via forums like Facebook.  In addition, the fact that almost every major newspaper has come out against the […]

Medical Marijuana Provision Among the Suggested Measures

SAINT LEO, FL – Four measures that will appear on the ballot for Florida voters on November 8 appear poised for approval, including a measure to allow the use of medical marijuana when prescribed by a doctor, according to a September survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu).

For a ballot measure to pass, at least 60 percent of voters must support it. In these cases, support has grown over the course of multiple Saint Leo polls. The most recent survey was conducted online from September 10 to 16, 2016, with 502 respondents, including 475 who said they are likely voters. The margin of error for responses reported here is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

All measures that appear on voter ballots in Florida do so through one of two possible mechanisms: enough citizens sign a petition, or the Florida Legislature refers a matter to the broad electorate.

Amendments 1 and 2, concerning solar power and medical marijuana, respectively, came about through petitions. The amendment dealing with about property tax treatment for disabled first responders, Amendment 3, and Amendment 5, the tax relief measure for some senior citizens, were referred by the state Legislature.

All the measures seems to have gained support or at least held steady among likely voters in recent months, as the table illustrates. (The survey results from a broader base of Florida respondents, including those who won’t vote, were statistically the same as those from the likely voters.)

Florida Ballot Measures
June 2016 support – likely voters
August 2016 support – likely voters
September 2016 support – likely voters

Grants Florida residents the right to own or lease equipment that produces solar energy for personal use – Amendment 1
77.3%
81.4%
84.0%

Grants the […]

Respondents Continue to Favor Increased Focus on Mental Health and Treatment

SAINT LEO, FL – The most recent Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu) survey including questions on gun ownership and related sentiments found that more than 60 percent of individuals—nationally and in Florida—do not own any firearms.

This replicates the findings of the 2015 survey, completed around the same time of year. Saint Leo included questions on guns and public policy in a parallel survey conducted online nationally and in Florida from September 10 to September 16. The national survey attracted 1,103 responses, so the findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Florida survey attracted 502 responses and so has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The survey asked individuals what firearms, if any, they own, and allowed for multiple responses. Handguns were most frequently cited among those who own firearms.

Firearms owned         and type
2015 National
2016 National
2015 Florida  
2016 Florida 

None
66.7%
64.5%
69.0%
67.0%

Handgun(s)
23.4%
25.2%
23.5%
25.2%

Rifle(s)
17.7%
18.3%
13.3%
13.2%

Shotgun(s)
15.9%
16.6%
12.7%
12.6%

Assault weapon(s)
5.6%
4.0%
2.9%
4.4%

Unsure
1.6%
2.1%
1.7%
3.8%

There is not enough movement from year-to-year in any of the results to be statistically significant. Similarly, there was little change in people’s beliefs on gun control. People were asked which of three statements is closest to their own belief. The results are shown in descending order.

Position on gun controls –

Indicate which statement

best reflects your position 
2015 National             
2016 National 
2015 Florida  
2016 Florida 

There should be some limited licensing, permitting or some restrictions on certain arms such as assault weapons
73.2%
74.9%
72.4%
76.2%

There should be no regulations or controls on any firearms
12.8%
12.6%
9.8%
9.6%

Firearms should not be owned privately
8.5%
8.1%
12.5%
7.8%

Unsure
5.5%
4.4%
5.2%
6.4%

Responses were more splintered when people were asked about their “own personal position toward gun ownership and gun regulation” given “the number of mass shootings nationwide.” No one […]