Institute

Trump Support Confined; Minority Voters Will Cast Ballots Against Him

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a 14-point polling lead over GOP candidate Donald Trump among Florida’s likely voters, according to a new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu).

The survey was conducted online from August 14 to 18 among 1,500 Florida adults, including 1,380 who said they will likely vote in the November election. When asked which presidential candidate they would support, or would lean toward supporting, if the election was the same day that they took the survey, respondents answered in these proportions:

            Candidate
Combined percent of supporters and those leaning toward support

Democrat Hillary Clinton
51.7% (decided supporters = 48.3%)

Republican Donald Trump
37.7 % (decided supporters = 33.8%)

Libertarian Gary Johnson
8.3 % (decided supporters = 6.4%)

Green Party candidate Jill Stein
2.4 % (decided supporters = 1.6%)

The margin of error for the findings is plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the results could be off by that much in either direction. If Clinton’s actual base of supporters turned out to be 3 points lower, and Trump’s were 3 points higher, the Democrat would still have the edge by 8 points.

Saint Leo University Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando said the results show that Clinton’s lead appears “very secure” in Florida. “She was winning by 14 points in Florida in our June poll, and she’s still winning by that margin after the conventions. The opportunities for Donald Trump to make up that distance are shrinking,” observed Orlando, who also teaches political science at Saint Leo University. “Absent an unprecedented movement toward Trump as a result of the debates, or more likely, an external shock to the system, she can safely put Florida in her column,” Orlando said.

Orlando delved further into the […]

SAINT LEO, FL – A survey earlier this month from the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu) found that more than two-thirds of Americans plan to watch broadcasts of the 2016 Summer Olympic Games, being held from Friday, August 5, through Sunday, August 21, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The institute’s online poll of 1,001 adults was conducted from June 10 through June 16, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An impressive 69.2 percent said they plan to watch broadcasts of the 2016 Rio Olympics, as the games are more commonly called. Another 18.8 percent said they don’t plan to watch the games. Twelve percent were not sure if they would tune in to the broadcasts, which are airing on NBC, the Spanish-language partner Telemundo, and related cable networks in the NBCUniversal corporate family.

Men are slightly more apt than women to plan to watch, at 70.9 percent, compared to 67.7 percent. Among age groups, those 65 and older are the most committed to viewing, at 71.9 percent, exceeding by 4 percentage points the youngest grouping, ages 18 to 44.

Phil Hatlem, instructor of sport business at Saint Leo, said there is a reason for that little wrinkle in the demography. The viewing patterns of the older group were formed when the Olympics had much less competition from other sports events for viewers, and when the games could be watched only on television screens, not on tablets or phones.

The survey also asked those intending to watch which of the 28 sports they are most eager to see.

Well over one-half said they wanted to see swimming (69.7 percent) and gymnastics (63.7 percent).
The next most popular was basketball, at about one-third of respondents (34.6 […]

SAINT LEO –  A June poll of Floridians by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute found residents leaning toward approving five ballot measures that would grant limited approval of use of medical marijuana, support of alternative energy sources, and property tax help for some residents.  Voters will encounter one of the measures on the ballot at the August 30 primary to determine major-party candidates for the U.S. Senate contest, and the other four on their ballots at the November 8 general election.

All the measures polled favorably, with support from more than half of the 500 statewide residents surveyed in the online poll, and from the even more telling cross-section of 459 likely voters. Still, sentiment could shift between now and the voting times, and there are significant pluralities of voters surveyed who said they were unsure, noted Frank Orlando, political scientist and director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute. In the case of all the ballot proposals, 60 percent of the electorate have to vote in favor for the measure to pass.

The measure voters will consider first, on August 30, proposes creating tax breaks for businesses that install and use renewable energy devices, such as solar panels.  It would take effect in 2018 and last for 20 years. The proposal is coming before voters through the action of the state Legislature, which voted through join resolution to have the public decide the matter.

The Saint Leo survey asked likely voters statewide to indicate their position and found:

Florida Ballot Measure for August 30
Support – %
Oppose – %
Unsure – %

Provides property tax exemptions for renewable energy devices – Amendment 4
68.2%
7.2%
24.6%

Orlando commented that the amendment is straightforward and faces little opposition.

Of the ballot measures voters will decide on […]

SAINT LEO, FL ­­– Only a small cross-section of Americans say they will change their summer plans to travel outside of the United States because of fears of terrorism, health concerns, or financial or family issues. According to a new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute, 3 percent of respondents changed their vacation plans, but 22.7 percent said they still have plans to travel out of the country in the summer or fall. Most polled, 67.8 percent, say they had no plans for international travel.

The online poll was conducted June 10 through June 16, and had 1,001 respondents nationally.

Of those who cancelled travel abroad, about one in five said concern about health safety, such as the Zika virus, prompted canceling or changing travel plans (21.3 percent).  “The biggest change is for Latin America and the Caribbean because of the Zika virus,” said John Heather, Saint Leo instructor of international tourism and hospitality management.  In light of cancellations, destinations in those areas are offering deep discounts to try to lure tourists back, Heather said.

Other reasons cited for changing or canceling plans, according to the Saint Leo poll, were concern over terrorism (36.2 percent); plans simply changed (38.3 percent); and financial/family or personal issues (29.8 percent). Another 2.1 percent said they were “unsure” of why they changed plans.

Among those who say they were not planning on traveling abroad, the largest group, 48.9 percent, cited financial reasons.

Fears about terrorism were given as a reason by 23.9 percent. Following terrorist attacks in Paris (November 2015) and Belgium (March 2016), attempts are being made to drive tourism. “Europe is offering some deals now,” Heather commented. “And the dollar is very strong.”

Cuba

On another topic, interest in travel to Cuba […]

SAINT LEO, FL – Earlier this month, the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu) asked Americans about the current vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court – a topic addressed by President Barack Obama today – and more than half think Senate Republicans should give Obama’s nominee a hearing before the November presidential election.

In the June 10 -16 online poll of 1,001 adults, respondents answered this question:

In order to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, the President has nominated Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. Which of the following two approaches to the vacancy best reflects your own view?

The Senate Republicans should allow hearings and vote on President Obama’s nominee; or
54.2%

The Senate Republican leaders should delay consideration of any nominee until after the next President is elected in November 2016.
33.3%

Unsure / Don’t know
12.5%

Margin of error: +/- 3.0%

Media contacts: Jo-Ann Johnston, Saint Leo University, University Communications by email at   jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-8237 or (352) 467-0843 (cell/text) or Mary McCoy, Saint Leo University, University Communications mary.mccoy02@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-7118 or (813) 610-8416 (cell/text)

More About Our Research

METHODOLOGY: All surveys were conducted using an online survey instrument. The national poll of 1,001 adults has a plus or minus margin of error of 3.0 percent.

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross-sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo […]