New Saint Leo University Survey Confirms Faith Plays Significant Role for Some Voters; Still, Other Voters Make Political Decisions Balancing Different Factors

Catholic voters split on issues just as does the general public, rather than acting as a unified bloc

ST. LEO, FL – For about four in 10 Americans, personal religious beliefs factor into their voting decisions, according to the most recent survey from the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (https://polls.saintleo.edu). A similar proportion expect that their fellow citizens will also apply their religious views in making decisions between candidates and about ballot measures.

The polling institute recently asked 1,000 respondents across the country, and another 500 respondents in Florida, about the role of faith in American political life. Respondents provided their answers between September 27 and October 2. Six of the seven questions also were posed during the institute’s February 2020 survey, when political parties were preparing for primary elections.

Frank Orlando, a political scientist and director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute, said the findings illustrate the continuing dialogue between faith matters and electoral politics. “Even though some argue that religion is fading from public life,” Orlando said, “the private religious conviction of a large part of the electorate informs their vote choice. As long as this is the case, politicians will try to woo these voters using whatever means necessary.”

The survey asked about faith in terms of one’s “own religious beliefs” and “my religious leaders” or “religious leaders” in general. The demographics of the survey base reflect the country in general, including mainline Protestants, Catholics, nondenominational Christians, people with no religious affiliation, and in smaller proportions, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, members of the Greek Orthodox Church, and Latter-day Saints. (See below for specific percentages.)

The polling institute survey inquired about the role of faith in the respondents’ political decisions by presenting them with seven test statements. Respondents were asked if they strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statements. The chart below shows the combined percentages of people strongly agreeing and somewhat agreeing with each statement.

Orlando noted there are some populations in the respondent base who were more likely than the 42.8 percent reflected overall who said they were likely to use their religious beliefs in their voting formulations. For instance, of those who identified as Protestant or nondenominational Christians, 57.4 percent agreed that their religious beliefs inform their votes, more than 14 percentage points higher than the overall sample. That figure is also higher than the result for Catholics in the survey, of whom 44.4 percent said they use their religious beliefs in voting. As for members of other religions, 33.7 percent agreed with the test statement.

Additionally, political philosophies and party affiliations made a difference. Of those who said they are conservative, 60.5 percent said religious views are a factor in voting, nearly 18 percentage points above the average. It is also more than twice as high a percentage than found among liberals, among whom 24.8 percent agreed. Among moderates, 39.4 percent agreed.

The same pattern emerged with survey respondents who identified themselves as Republicans. Of GOP respondents, 57.8 percent said they use religious beliefs in voting, just a couple of percentage points lower than conservative. Of Democrats, 39.4 percent said they use their religious beliefs in voting, and of independents, the figure is 36.3 percent.

Orlando commented that “It’s interesting to see that non-Catholic Christians are more likely to use their faith than Catholic voters. This is perhaps due to years of Catholics occupying a place outside of the mainstream of political life, and thus having to de-emphasize their religion as a means of fitting in with the dominant Protestant groups. It also goes to show that the future of the Republican party is with religious voters—one of the few groups that has remained loyal to President [Donald] Trump.”

The fact that overall, about 40 percent of the respondents also agreed with the statements that other voters and elected officials should apply their religious beliefs in making political decisions, intrigued Dr. Stephen Okey, an associate professor of theology at Saint Leo University. He also comments on some areas of religion and politics for the polling institute. Okey said this suggests to him that “two out of every five Americans are comfortable with some role for religion in public life.’’

At the same time, the survey notes that about 50 percent consider America a secular nation rather than a Christian one. About 30 percent said that America is a Christian nation. Orlando said that group likely overlaps with the respondents who said they agree with applying religious beliefs to voting.

The survey also found that more than half the respondents agree that, “Religious leaders should be more active in reducing the national political divide and tensions we face today.” Orlando reflected that “for years, voters have been told that religion in politics has caused a lot of political strife, but that without unifying principles that religions can provide across the aisle, there is a void in American politics. So far, that gap hasn’t been filled adequately.”

Pro-life views and politics

For the first time, this particular series of questions on faith and politics introduced a test statement on whether respondents prioritize abortion above all other issues, when deciding upon a candidate. More than one-quarter, 29 percent, agreed nationally.

In a different part of the survey, more respondents indicated abortion would be one of the issues important to them in votes for Congressional representatives and president. The wording of that question asked respondents to read a list of 12 issues that have been prominent in the last year and discussed during campaigns—including the pandemic, the now-filled U.S. Supreme Court vacancy, police funding, and others, as well abortion—and indicate how important each one would be. Respondents used a scale to indicate the importance of each issue to them. The institute found that among national respondents, 43.7 percent emphasized abortion as important, even though some who answered this way apparently did not prioritize it above all other issues.

Compared to the other issues in the list of 12, abortion ranked last in terms of the percentage of respondents indicating it would be very important in their vote.

Okey, the theologian, commented that the group of “findings suggest that despite abortion often being considered the ‘single issue’ among many single-issue voters, fewer than half rank it as an important topic.”

Elsewhere on the scale, the U.S. Supreme Court vacancy was important to 57.7 percent of likely voters, ranking fifth. “What strikes me here,” Orlando said, “is that such a large percentage find this important. For a long time in American politics, only Republicans paid attention to filing court vacancies. With the contentious nature of the last three picks, Democrats are realizing that this is an important issue to run on as well.”

Catholic voting patterns and Catholic Social Teaching

Another Saint Leo faculty member looked at the voting preferences expressed by Catholics among the survey respondents, not just in the faith and politics section, where 44.4 percent of Catholics said they use their religious beliefs in voting.

Catholics could conceivably use as a guide what is formally known as Catholic Social Teaching (CST). Many people do not know it by that name, and may not be aware that the U.S. Conference of Conference of Bishops has a guide on the full range of the teachings. Still, Catholics are apt to be exposed to aspects of it, such as concern for the poor, support for peace and human rights, or concern for the environment, according to Dr. Marc Pugliese, also an associate professor of theology at Saint Leo. “These sorts of things come up in homilies and other parish activities,” Pugliese said. “Many Catholics are exposed to aspects of CST through Pope Francis, for example.”

What Pugliese has generally observed, though, is that many Catholics are more influenced by their political party affiliation or philosophy, and then are apt to “cherry-pick from whatever they do in fact know about CST [again, usually not by that label] to support their political views.”

So Catholics will in fact be divided on many issues, just as is the general public. This was apparent in the survey’s findings on current issues.

For instance, Pugliese looked at Catholic responses to a series of questions about racial and social justice and professional sports. People were asked if they agree or disagree that high-profile athletes who kneel during the pre-game playing of the national anthem to protest racial injustice and acts of police brutality are trying to support a long-term movement, rather than just a moment. Catholics in the survey split on that, with 50.6 percent in agreement. Similarly, Pugliese noted, liberals and conservatives split on the issue: a majority of liberals agreed with the statement at nearly 65 percent, but fewer than half of conservatives (41.4 percent) agreed. As for the act itself of kneeling during the anthem at sports events, Pugliese noted that of Catholics in the survey, 53.3 percent oppose it and 41.3 percent support it.

Turning to the presidential election, 51 percent of Catholics said they will support Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden for president. That practically mirrors the overall survey finding that found 50.7 percent will support Biden. (Biden himself is a practicing Catholic.) The Catholic support for President Donald J. Trump’s re-election bid is 40.5 percent. Also, Pugliese noted, of the Catholics surveyed, 45.2 percent said they approve of the Trump’s job performance.

When the respondents were asked a hypothetical question about which of the two vice-presidential nominees they would choose to support if they were actually the party nominees for president, the Catholic reactions split again. “The percentages of Catholics who say they would support Kamala Harris and Mike Pence are extremely close, 43.2 percent for Harris and 44.8 percent for Pence,” Pugliese noted.

Orlando, the political scientist and polling institute director, agreed with Pugliese’s assessment of American Catholics as a varied group of voters defined by factors other than religion.

“By mainstreaming their beliefs and de-emphasizing religious doctrine when making vote choices, Catholics have become the bellwether of American politics over the last 20 years,” Orlando said. “While this means their support is important, it also means that the idea of a Catholic presidential candidate running is not appealing to a large number of Catholic voters and not scary to a large number of non-Catholics.”

Note: Of the 1,000 respondents nationally, 26.3 percent are part of a mainline Protestant denomination (such as Baptist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, etc.); almost as many, at 25.9 percent, are Catholics; 21.5 percent said they have no religious affiliation; and 14.9 percent said they belong to nondenominational Christian churches. Another 2.9 percent of respondents are Jewish, and 1.5 percent are Buddhist. Smaller populations, of less than 1 percent, identified themselves as Muslim, Greek Orthodox, and Latter Day Saints (Mormon).

About the Poll

METHODOLOGY: This national survey was conducted from September 27 through October 2, among a base of 1,000 respondents nationally, using an online instrument. The national sample has an associated margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence for questions asked of all 1,000 respondents.

The statewide survey was also conducted from September 27 through October 2, among a base of 500 respondents, using an online instrument. The sample has an associated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence for questions asked of all 500 respondents.

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive—usually $1 deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account—for their participation.

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute survey results about national and Florida politics, public policy issues, Pope Francis’ popularity, and other topics, can also be found here: http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on Twitter @saintleopolls.

Media contacts:

Mary McCoy, Saint Leo University, University Writer & Media Relations, mary.mccoy02@saintleo.edu, (352) 588-7118 or cell (813) 610-8416.

Jo-Ann Johnston, Saint Leo University, University Communications jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 467-0843 (cell/text).   

About Saint Leo University

Saint Leo University is one of the largest Catholic universities in the nation, offering nearly 60 undergraduate and graduate-level degree programs to more than 19,500 students each year. Founded in 1889 by Benedictine monks, the private, nonprofit university is known for providing a values-based education to learners of all backgrounds and ages in the liberal arts tradition. Saint Leo is regionally accredited and offers a residential campus in the Tampa Bay region of Florida, 16 education centers in five states, and an online program for students anywhere. The university is home to more than 95,000 alumni. Learn more at saintleo.edu.