Jeb Bush Tops Presidential Field Among Floridians

A new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute contains some encouragement for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush as he mulls mounting a presidential campaign.

Saint Leo University political scientist Frank Orlando termed Bush’s advantage with Republicans in the state over other possible GOP presidential candidates as “massive.”

Bush tops the field of prospective candidates among Florida Republicans, named by 34 percent of likely as their first choice. Former presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is named by 15 percent of Republican voters, and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has 10 percent. All other candidates trail in single digits:

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016… here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Republican nomination?

Another 18 percent of voters identify Bush as their second choice, again topping the field:

And who would be your second choice?

“The conventional wisdom is that there’s only room for one Florida Republican in the presidential field, Bush or Rubio; and the clear, cut winner is Jeb Bush,” said Saint Leo’s Orlando, who is a political science instructor. “As Florida’s ‘favorite son,” he appears to be winning the invisible primary. Our poll results confirm beyond a doubt his dominance over Rubio and the other Republican contenders. Jeb is wildly popular among Floridians. I was surprised at his massive advantage.”

Asked whether they would like to see Bush run for president, 44 percent of likely Florida voters (including Republicans, Democrats, and independents) said yes. Looking at results solely from Republicans, that figure rises to 69 percent:

Would you like to see former Florida Governor Jeb Bush run for president of the United States in 2016?

Senator Rubio also draws support for a presidential campaign, but not as strongly as does Bush. While 28 percent of voters would like him to run, 48 percent do not. Even among Republicans, support for a Rubio run is more muted, with 42 percent saying they would like Rubio to run and 32 percent saying they would not:

Would you like to see Florida Senator Marco Rubio run for president of the United States in 2016?          

And if both Bush and Rubio were to run, Bush would have more support, including more support among Republicans:

Let’s say both Florida Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush run for President in 2016. Which candidate would you support?

Bush enjoys a 57/37 favorability rating among Florida likely voters of all parties, meaning a total of 57 percent view him either strongly or somewhat favorably, compared to the sum of 37 percent who view him either somewhat or not at all favorably. Among Republicans, the rating jumps to a sterling 83/11. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is also popular with voters–just not quite as popular. His favorability rating is 52/39, rising to 79/16 among Republicans.

Bush also fares better than other prospective Republican candidates when matched up against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as a Democratic nominee. Bush leads Clinton, 43-42, among likely Florida voters. Rubio also keeps it close, though Clinton leads Rubio, 46-42. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, and U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas trail Clinton by wider margins.

“People perceive Jeb Bush differently in the rest of the country,” commented Saint Leo’s Orlando. “Inside Florida, he’s Jeb. Outside of Florida, he’s George’s brother (meaning George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States),” Orlando explained, adding: “Jeb Bush continues to struggle to separate his personality from the former president. However, inside the Sunshine State, he stands for himself; he’s his own man. He’s been the most popular figure in the state for a generation.”

Republican vs. Democratic Projections

The survey also asked likely voters to consider which presidential candidates they would prefer in a number of possible scenarios. The survey specifically asked respondents to pick between candidates if the election was held the same day as the survey.

Six choices were presented, offering Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. The breakdowns follow.

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat or Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat or Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat or Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat or Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat or Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

In reviewing these results, political scientist Orlando noted that: “The odds of a Republican reaching the White House without winning Florida are slim. Winning Florida with their 29 electoral votes, is a must,” Only California (54) and Texas (38), have more electoral votes. If Jeb were to run, he has the best chance of winning Florida,” Orlando concluded.

Clinton’s Strong Lead Over Democratic Contenders Persists

Clinton continues to dominate the potential field of Democratic candidates, with 63 percent of likely voter Democrats naming her as their first choice. Vice President Joe Biden is named by 8 percent, and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is at 7 percent. Everyone else either hardly registers or does not register at all:

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016… here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Democratic nomination. If the Democratic primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination?

And who would be your second choice?

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute survey results about Florida politics and policy can be found here: http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on Twitter @saintleopolls.

About the Saint Leo University Polling Institute/Methodology

This Saint Leo University poll of 500 Florida adults, including 420 likely voters, was conducted between November 25 and December 7, 2014. The margin of error on political questions (of likely voters only) is approximately 3.5 percent +/- with a 95 percent confidence level. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. Sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantages of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive – usually $1 dollar deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account – for their participation.

To view the Saint Leo University Polling Institute’s survey results about Florida’s gubernatorial race and politics, including methodology, visit the polling institute’s website, http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on Twitter @saintleopolls. Saint Leo’s main website is www.saintleo.edu.

About the Saint Leo University Polling Institute/Methodology

This Saint Leo University statewide poll of 500 likely voters in Florida was fielded between October 16 and 19, 2014, using a blended sample reached by Interactive Voice Response and an online panel. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence level. 350 respondents (70 percent of sample) were reached on randomly dialed landline telephones using an automatic dialer, pre-recorded questions, and touch-tone telephone keypad responses. To ensure that a representative sample of younger voters, Hispanic voters, and cellphone-only voters was included, 150 respondents (30 percent of sample) aged 18-39 were reached using an online panel. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. Sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantages of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive usually deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account for their participation.

Media Contacts: Kim Payne, staff writer and media coordinator, at kim.payne@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-7233/(717) 798-1508 or Jo-Ann Johnston, academic communications manager, at jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-8237/(352) 467-0843.