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ST. LEO, FL – A new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (https://polls.saintleo.edu) shows that just over 60 percent of Americans either strongly approved or somewhat approved of the job performance President Joe Biden during his third week in office. In Florida, a state Biden failed to carry in 2020 election, support was at 56 percent.
The job approval results for Vice President Kamala Harris were above 50 percent both nationally and in Florida, lagging Biden’s results by about 6 and 5 points, respectively.
In addition to the current job-approval ratings of the new president and vice president, the Saint Leo University Polling Institute asked the public a broad range of questions about 2020 voting choice and regrets, party affiliation, and the potential appeal of future possible candidates. Results were collected both nationally, and in the politically significant state of Florida, which is also home to the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (@saintleopolls) and Saint Leo University.
The survey was completed between February 7, 2021, and February 14, 2021. Nationally, 1,000 respondents completed the survey. The resulting margin of error for the results is 3.0 percentage points in either direction, meaning the sentiments reported could actually vary by 3 points, plus or minus, from the results. The institute completed a parallel study during the same time period in Florida among 500 respondents, and the resulting margin of error is 4.5 percentage points in either direction.
A detailed break-out of the job-approval ratings for President Biden show that more of those who approve, strongly approve. And of those who disapprove, many more strongly disapprove than only somewhat disapprove.
| President Biden |
Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Combined approve |
Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | Combined disapprove |
| U.S. | 37.7% | 23.2% | 60.9% | 8.4% | 23.9% | 32.3% |
| Florida | 37.2% | 18.8% | 56.0% | 8.2% | 27.2% | 35.4% |
The same pattern emerged in the job-approval ratings reflected for Vice President Harris: more of those who approve, strongly approve than only somewhat approve. And of those who disapprove, many more strongly disapprove than only somewhat disapprove.
| VP Harris | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Combined approve |
Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | Combined disapprove |
| U.S. | 32.7% | 22.5% | 55.2% |
6.4% | 25.3% | 31.7% |
| Florida | 31.0% | 20.4% | 51.4% | 7.6% | 27.8% | 35.4% |
Survey respondents, in addition to rating the nation’s new top political leaders, also indicated which from a long list of issues confronting the nation they consider most important. Nationally, 41.4 percent of respondents indicated handling the COVID-19 pandemic was most important, making that the highest-ranking response. In October 2020, the pandemic was also at the top of people’s concerns, with 37.1 selecting that as the most important issue. Floridians who answered the same way about COVID-19 accounted for 32.2 percent in February, compared to 38 percent in October.
Jobs and the economy was the issue emerging second in ranked order both nationally – 23 percent in February, basically even with 22.8 percent in October – and in Florida, at 26.4 in February and 22.6 percent in October.
Frank Orlando, director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute and a political science instructor, said “President Biden is receiving the customary “honeymoon” period in approval that his predecessors (with the exception of President Trump) have received. It’s remarkable that he is above water with almost every demographic, and he’s even pulling 25 percent approval among Republicans. Obviously, this won’t last, but President Biden would be wise to use the short term popularity to enact as much of his agenda as he can now.”
U.S. House and Senate leaders rated
The job-approval ratings for the current legislative branch leaders, both Democrats, were lower, at less than 50 percent. Nationally, the combined positive approval ratings for returning U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, of California, was 46.6 percent. In Florida, her combined positive approval rating was 43.4 percent.
As for U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democrat who, with this election, became the U.S. Senate majority leader, the sum of respondents nationally giving him approving job-performance ratings was 44.2 percent. In Florida, the sum of respondents approving of his work so far was 40.8 percent.
Orlando, the political scientist, said these results are not surprising, even with presidential job approval higher. “Congressional leaders who have been around in their roles for a long time aren’t enjoying the same honeymoon effect as the president,” he commented. “Both Democrats and Republicans have their minds made up about the speaker and majority leader.”
Incidences of regrets over presidential voting
The Saint Leo University Polling Institute also asked the survey respondents how they voted for president in November 2020, and in the weeks that have followed, whether they have felt any regrets. Questions were asked of both Biden and Trump voters.
This gave respondents a chance to indicate sentiments they might not share with others in person, or in settings where they would be identifiable.
In the survey, 36.3epercent nationally and 43.2 percent from Florida indicated they voted in November for the re-election of Donald Trump. Those respondents who cast votes for Trump were asked this follow-up question:
Based on the events of January 6, 2021 — the storming of the United States Capitol building mostly by supporters of President Trump, or for any other reasons, how would you describe any regrets you may have regarding your support/vote. One means you have strong regrets while 10 means you have no regrets at all.
The following table captures the cumulative totals for strong regret (1-4) and no regrets at all (7-10).
| 2020 Vote Regrets re: Trump | Strongly Regrets (1-4) | No Regrets at All (7-10) |
| National | 14.3% | 69.7% |
| Florida | 17.6% | 70.9% |
The survey also queried Biden voters. Of the respondents nationally, 53.8 percent said they voted for Biden, and 47.8 percent of Florida respondents said they voted for Biden.
Those respondents were presented with this question:
Based on early actions of President Biden and his administration, including his appointments, new developments and the unprecedented number of executive orders, how would you describe any regrets you may have regarding your support/vote. One means you have strong regrets and 10 means you have no regrets at all.
The following table indicates the cumulative totals for strong regret (1-4) and no regrets at all (7-10).
| 2020 Vote Regrets re: Biden | Strongly Regrets (1-4) | No Regrets at All (7-10) |
| National | 14.7% | 75.9% |
| Florida | 18.4% | 73.6% |
“The majority of voters in both parties seem happy with their presidential choice,” Orlando said. “While it is interesting that similar numbers expressed regret among Trump and Biden voters, I suspect that many of those voters would act the same way they did in November.”
Party affiliation and current sentiment
All respondents were asked if, based on the November 2020 presidential election, they are reconsidering their political party affiliation or support. More than 70 percent in all categories shown indicate they will stay with the same party.
| Party affiliation – reconsidering? | National | National Republicans | National Democrats |
| Yes, have reconsidered or reconsidering | 17.2% | 17.0% | 25.8% |
| No, have not reconsidered or reconsidering | 75.9% | 75.6% | 71.0%% |
Orlando said the results are important indicators to watch. “We are witnessing a realignment in American politics with educated suburban white voters shifting towards the Democratic Party and rural, and other groups, moving in the opposite direction. The longer this goes on,” Orlando said, “the more likely voters will feel comfortable to make a permanent switch, either to the opposite party or to become independents.”
Looking to the next general election’s potential candidates
Although it is early in 2021, the polling institute wanted to gauge among respondents the appeal of potential candidates for president in the 2024 election.
Questions were asked both of survey respondents who indicated a Republican affiliation, and a Democratic party affiliation.
Republican respondents were actually asked two questions.
The first put the question this way, with a list of 29 names provided in alphabetical order.
The following are the notable and possible candidates for the Republican nomination to run for president of the United States in 2024. Which of the following could you support in a future primary? Please indicate all that apply.
The chart shows, in declining order of the national responses, those names that attracted at least 10 percent of responses.
| Notable and Possible Republican Candidates |
National Percent | Florida Percent |
| Donald Trump | 51.9 | 48.6 |
| Mike Pence | 34.8 | 28.6 |
| Ted Cruz | 30.4 | 29.7 |
| Nikki Haley | 23.3 | 25.7 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 22.6 | 22.3 |
| Tom Cotton | 15.9 | 10.9 |
| Marco Rubio | 15.6 | 18.9 |
| Ron DeSantis | 15.2 | 41.1 |
| Condi Rice | 15.2 | 10.9 |
| Greg Abbott | 14.8 | 8.6 |
| Ivanka Trump | 14.1 | 16.6 |
| Josh Hawley | 12.6 | 8.0 |
| Dan Crenshaw | 11.9 | 9.7 |
| Mike Pompeo | 11.5 | 13.7 |
| Rick Scott | 11.5 | 22.3 |
| Kristi Noem | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| Paul Ryan | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| Candace Owens | 10.4 | 12.6 |
| Mitt Romney | 10.4 | 8.0 |
Republicans were also asked to consider a lineup in which Donald Trump does not become a candidate in 2024.
| Notable and Possible Republican Candidates |
National Percent | Florida Percent |
| Mike Pence | 37.8 | 34.9 |
| Ted Cruz | 29.3 | 29.7 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 26.3 | 30.9 |
| Nikki Haley | 23.0 | 24.6 |
| Ron DeSantis | 18.1 | 42.3 |
| Ivanka Trump | 15.9 | 19.4 |
| Marco Rubio | 15.2 | 19.4 |
| Tom Cotton | 14.1 | 13.1 |
| Greg Abbott | 13.3 | 8.6 |
| Condi Rice | 13.3 | 10.9 |
| Dan Crenshaw | 13.0 | 9.7 |
| Candace Owens | 13.0 | 13.1 |
| Mike Pompeo | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| Josh Hawley | 11.1 | 8.0 |
| Tucker Carlson | 10.7 | 13.1 |
| None of these | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| Paul Ryan | 10.4 | 8.0 |
| Mitt Romney | 10.0 | 10.3 |
The results demonstrate the continued popularity for Donald Trump, Orlando said. If, for some reason, Donald Trump was absent from the race, former Vice President Mike Pence would appear to benefit the most. But other Trump family members and associates also appear often.
“President Trump is clearly still the most powerful figure in the Republican Party. Republicans have had months to distance themselves from the former president and have been reluctant to do so,” Orlando noted. “This implies that they find his presence to be an electoral benefit to themselves and the party. The results bear this out, and if he decides to run, he will be a formidable force who would most likely dominate a fractured field.”
If Trump does not run again, Orlando noted that “several Florida Republicans would be beneficiaries.” The Republicans names that emerged on the list above are: current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was closely aligned with former President Trump; senior U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, on both lists; junior U.S. Senator and former Governor Rick Scott, on the first list (though he remained a Florida favorite on the second question); and brand-new Florida resident Ivanka Trump, who served in her father’s administration.
“Of the several Floridians, nobody gets a greater home state bounce than Ron DeSantis,” Orlando said. “He seems to have struck a balance between courting Trump voters and maintaining the support of more moderate Republicans in a way that Rubio, in particular, has not. It will be interesting to see how personal relationships between the Sunshine Staters will affect their candidacies in 2024.”
Democratic future contenders considered
Respondents to the survey who identified as Democrats were also given a list of 19 names in alphabetical order and asked:
The following are the notable and possible candidates for the Democratic nomination to run for president of the United States in 2024. Which of the following could you support in a future primary? Please indicate all that apply.
The chart contains the names, in declining order of popularity, those attracting at least 10 percent of national responses.
| Notable and Possible Democratic Candidates |
National Percent | Florida Percent |
| Kamala Harris | 61.3 | 56.5 |
| Michelle Obama | 41.9 | 37.6 |
| Bernie Sanders | 26.8 | 18.8 |
| Stacey Abrams | 26.1 | 28.2 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 23.5 | 22.9 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 21.6 | 14.7 |
| Cory Booker | 18.7 | 20.6 |
| Andrew Cuomo | 18.1 | 20.0 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 12.3 | 12.4 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11.6 | 11.2 |
| Andrew Yang | 10.3 | 11.2 |
Orlando said the top-line results so are an expected outcome. “As vice president, Kamala Harris should be in the dominant position she is in for 2024 should Joe Biden decide not to run,” Orlando said. “Four years is a long time, but her status as vice president will make it difficult for others to catch her, based on name identification alone.”
About the Poll
METHODOLOGY: This national survey was conducted from February 7, 2021, through February 14, 2021, among a base of 1,000 respondents nationally, using an online instrument. The national sample has an associated margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence for questions asked of all 1,000 respondents.
The statewide survey was also conducted from February 7, 2021, through February 14, 2021, among a base of 500 respondents, using an online instrument. The sample has an associated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence for questions asked of all 500 respondents.
The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive—usually $1 deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account—for their participation.
The Saint Leo University Polling Institute survey results about national and Florida politics, public policy issues, Pope Francis’ popularity, and other topics, can also be found here: http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on Twitter @saintleopolls.
Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando is available for comment though these contacts.
Media contacts:
Jo-Ann Johnston, Saint Leo University, University Communications jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 467-0843 (cell/text).
Mary McCoy, Saint Leo University, University Writer & Media Relations, mary.mccoy02@saintleo.edu, (352) 588-7118 or cell (813) 610-8416.
About Saint Leo University
Saint Leo University is one of the largest Catholic universities in the nation, offering 57 undergraduate and graduate-level degree programs to more than 18,200 students each year. Founded in 1889 by Benedictine monks, the private, nonprofit university is known for providing a values-based education to learners of all backgrounds and ages in the liberal arts tradition. Saint Leo is regionally accredited and offers a residential campus in the Tampa Bay region of Florida, 16 education centers in five states, and an online program for students anywhere. The university is home to more than 98,000 alumni. Learn more at saintleo.edu.