SAINT LEO, FL – A new June survey on presidential candidates conducted by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute ( (http://polls.saintleo.edu) found Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican opponent Donald Trump by 44.9 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in a presumed two-candidate race with another 18.1 percent undecided.
The poll specifically asked respondents what they would do if the election were held the same day they took the online poll.
The survey was conducted with 1,001 adults—including 930 likely voters—-and was conducted June 10 through June 16. That was right after the California state primary that secured Clinton’s position as presumptive Democratic nominee. The mass shooting in Orlando, FL, was June 12.
During the same time period, the Saint Leo University Polling Institute also polled another 500 adults in Florida , including 459 likely voters, to gauge sentiments in the influential state. Florida likely voters also favored Clinton over Trump, by 50.1 percent to 35.3 percent for the businessman.
Political scientist Frank Orlando, director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute, said the results point to success for Clinton, “unless something drastic happens.”
It’s not that survey respondents necessarily like Clinton, responses to other questions show. But more people dislike Trump. The survey base found that 62.6 percent of likely voters nationally attached unfavorable ratings to Trump, compared to the 54.7 percent who felt unfavorably about Clinton. The Florida voters followed the same pattern: 66 percent of likely voters felt unfavorably about Trump, compared to 53.4 percent who are unfavorable about Clinton.
“For sure, they are both not liked,” said Orlando. “Trump is liked even less. Likely voters are holding their noses for both.”
Clinton’s national favorable ratings came from 43.6 percent of likely voters polled, while Trump was favored by 35.1 percent.
When the survey gave the respondents a third choice, the option of electing Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, Clinton and Trump each lost about 5 percent nationally from likely voters. That meant Clinton held onto the lead with 40.6 percent, while Trump received 33 percent and Johnson attracted 10.7 percent. The remaining 15.7 percent were unsure. In Florida, Johnson attracted less support among likely voters. So the results there gave Clinton 45.8 percent, Trump 33.1 percent, and Johnson 5.9 percent. The balance of 15.2 percent were not sure.
The single most important issue from a long list was identified by likely voters nationally and in for voters nationally (31.4 percent) and in Florida (29.4 percent) was “jobs and the economy.” A combined total of attention to the issues of terrorism (meaning anywhere) and homeland security and anti-terror policy (domestically) followed, both nationally (16.7 percent) and in Florida (20.7 percent ).
“Trump voters,” Orlando said, “were more likely to list terrorism, homeland security, and declining U.S. status as more important than non-Trump voters.”
The survey also asked respondents, regardless of their own preference, which candidate they thought would emerge the winner. Clinton again held the lead nationally with 53 percent of likely voters and Trump with 31 percent. Johnson got a token 1.4 percent, leaving 14.8 percent unsure. In Florida, results were strikingly similar, with Clinton taking 52.5 percent of likely voters and Trump 30.7 percent. Johnson got some votes, but not enough to reach 1 percent, so almost 16 percent were unsure.
These numbers amount to a challenge to Republicans running for Congressional and Senate seats, Orlando said. The candidate names for these seats appear further down the ballot, below the names for presidential aspirants. “The lack of enthusiasm for Trump might cause rank-and-file Republicans to stay home on Election Day, putting control of Congress in jeopardy.” Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives since 2010, and the Senate since 2014, Orlando added.
Highlights from Data
Candidate results nationally if the election were held today
- Two-way race: Hillary Clinton, 44.9 percent; Donald Trump, 37 percent.
- With the Libertarian candidate: Hillary Clinton, 40.6 percent; Donald Trump, 33 percent; and Gary Johnson, 10.7 percent
Favorable (combined very and somewhat) vs. unfavorable ratings (somewhat unfavorable or not at all favorable) ratings
- Favorable: Hillary Clinton, 43.6 percent; Donald Trump, 35.1 percent; Gary Johnson, 15.7 percent
- Unfavorable: Hillary Clinton, 54.7 percent; Donald Trump, 62.6 percent, Gary Johnson, 22.9 percent
Media contacts: Jo-Ann Johnston, Saint Leo University, University Communications by email at firstname.lastname@example.org or (352) 588-8237 or (352) 467-0843 (cell/text) or
Mary McCoy, Saint Leo University, University Communications email@example.com or (352) 588-7118 or (813) 610-8416 (cell/text)
More About Our Research
METHODOLOGY: All surveys were conducted using an online survey instrument. The national poll of 1001 adults has a plus or minus margin of error of 3.0 percent, and the margin of error for the likely voter population of 930 adults is plus or minus 3.2 percent. The Florida poll overall of 500 adults has a plus or minus 4.5 percent margin of error; the results from the 450 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.57 percent.
The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross-sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results.
Panel participants typically receive a token incentive—usually $1 deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account—for their participation.
The Saint Leo University Polling Institute survey results about national and Florida politics, public policy issues, Pope Francis’ popularity, and other topics, can be found here: http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on Twitter @saintleopolls.
About Saint Leo University
Saint Leo University (www.saintleo.edu) is a regionally accredited, liberal-arts-based institution known for an inclusive Catholic heritage, enduring values, and a capacity for innovation. The school was chartered in 1889 by Catholic Benedictine monks in rural Pasco County, FL, making Saint Leo the first Catholic college in the state. Saint Leo provides access to education to people of all faiths, emphasizing the Benedictine philosophy of balanced growth of mind, body, and spirit.
The university welcomes learners from all generations and backgrounds, from civilian occupations and the armed forces, and from across the country and more than 60 nations around the world. Saint Leo’s nearly 16,000 undergraduate and graduate students may elect to study at the beautiful University Campus in Florida, at more than 40 teaching locations in seven states, or online from any location. The university’s degree programs range from the associate to the doctorate. Through these rich offerings, Saint Leo develops principled leaders for a challenging world.
Saint Leo University boasts nearly 80,000 alumni in all 50 states, Washington, DC, five U.S. territories, and 72 countries.