Clinton’s Numbers Slip, But She Maintains Frontrunner Position

Rubio in Second Place among Florida Republicans

Hillary Clinton has lost some support in recent months, a new poll from the Saint Leo University Polling Institute has found, but she remains a dominant frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination and leads all potential Republican opponents in head-to-head matchups.

While 50 percent of Democrats nationally name Clinton as their first choice presidential candidate—­­­­Vice President Joe Biden is second with 11 percent—Clinton’s support has fallen 7 points since Saint Leo’s December 2014 poll, when 57 percent of voters named her their first choice.

The precise question and responses are as follows:

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016…here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Democratic nomination. If the Democratic primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination?

Clinton has an even wider lead among Florida Democrats, whose responses to the same question were as follows:

Nationally, Clinton’s favorability rating is 48 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, for a net of -1. This is a decline of 15 points in her net favorable rating since the December poll. Among Democrats, her rating is 79/18 (+61), still very strong, but also a drop of 11 points since the December poll.

“Hillary Clinton’s support is slipping, but only slightly. This is to be expected as the campaign moves along and her opponents begin to explore her record for possible weaknesses,” said Frank Orlando, instructor of political science at Saint Leo University. “It’s also the first time in our polling that Vice President Joe Biden is in double digits, but Hillary still has a very commanding position. Furthermore, the fact that an even larger majority of Democrats think that she will win the nomination augurs well for her candidacy.” continued Orlando.

Despite this dip in her ratings, Clinton continues to lead all Republican opponents in hypothetical head-to-head ballot tests by similar margins. Her margin is slightly larger against the lesser-known Rubio and Walker. Nationally:

• Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, 47-38 percent (9 pts)
• Clinton leads U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, 49-39 (10)
• Clinton leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, 49-38 (11)
• Clinton leads Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 50-36 (14)
• Clinton leads U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 51-35 (16)

Among likely Florida voters, Clinton also leads all Republicans, although at present, Bush and Rubio are closer.

• Clinton leads Bush, 47-44 percent (3 pts)
• Clinton leads Rubio, 50-42 (8)
• Clinton leads Christie, 51-37 (14)
• Clinton leads Paul, 52-38 (14)
• Clinton leads Walker, 51-35 (16)

About the Saint Leo University Polling Institute/Methodology

This Saint Leo University polls of 1,016 people nationally (809 likely voters) was conducted between March 15-19, 2015. An addition 522 Floridians (433 likely voters were surveyed between March 15 – 21, 2015. The margin of error on political questions (of likely voters only) is approximately 4 percent +/- on the national survey and 5 percent +/- on the Florida poll, with a 95 percent confidence level. Margin of error will be greater for smaller sub groups. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allows for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive – usually $1 deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account – for their participation.

About Saint Leo University

Saint Leo University is a regionally accredited, liberal-arts-based institution known for an inclusive Catholic heritage, enduring values, and capacity for innovation. The school was chartered in 1889 by Catholic Benedictine monks in rural Pasco County, FL, making Saint Leo the first Catholic college in the state. Over its more than 125-year history, Saint Leo has provided access to education to people of all faiths, emphasizing the Benedictine philosophy of balanced growth of mind, body, and spirit.

Today the university welcomes learners from all generations and backgrounds, from civilian occupations and the armed forces, and from across the country and more than 60 nations around the world. Saint Leo’s 16,000 undergraduate and graduate students may elect to study at the beautiful University Campus in Florida, at more than 40 teaching locations in seven states, or online from other locations. The university’s degree programs range from the associate to the doctorate. Throughout these rich offerings, Saint Leo develops principled leaders for a challenging world.

Saint Leo University boasts more than 70,000 alumni in all 50 states, Washington, DC, three U.S. territories, and 70 countries.

Media Contacts: Kim Payne, staff writer and media coordinator, at kim.payne@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-7233/(717) 798-1508 or Jo-Ann Johnston, academic communications manager, at jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-8237/(352)467-0843.