Bush’s Lead Narrows but Remains Top Choice of National and Florida Republicans with Close Pack Following

Rubio in Second Place among Florida Republicans

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush leads a field of 20 possible Republican presidential candidates, but his margin has narrowed, according to a new national poll released by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.

Bush is named by 15 percent of likely Republican voters as their top pick for the Republican nomination, and 27 percent say they expect he will end up as the party’s nominee. But a large pack of candidates is close on his heels.

“The good news for Governor Bush is he’s in front, he has twice as much support as anyone else, and none of the other candidates breaks into double digits. The bad news is his share of the vote is lower than most front runners in recent elections at this point in the cycle.  Still, the fact that an even larger percentage of voters believe he will win shows his strength in the primary,” said Frank Orlando, instructor of political science at Saint Leo University.

In a development in the Republican field this week, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas announced his candidacy for president Monday, March 23. He garnered 7 percent interest from likely voters in the Saint Leo poll, while only 2 percent thought he would most likely win the Republican nomination for president in 2016. Note: The fielding of this quarterly poll concluded Thursday, March 19, for the national poll and on Saturday, March 21, for the separate Florida state results.

Questions were posed to likely Republican voters this way, with the following results.

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016…here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Republican nomination?

And who would be your second choice?

Regardless of whom you personally support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?

Florida GOP Voters Weigh In

Bush is also the leader among Florida Republicans, picked by 31 percent as their top choice in a separate poll of Sunshine State voters. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is named by 16 percent of voters; both likely candidates have twice as much support among their home state voters as they do among the national sample.

The questions, asked in Florida between March 15 and 21, and the results are here:

We know it’s early, but thinking about the presidential election in 2016…here is a list of potential candidates who may run for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which one of the following would you support for the Republican nomination?

And who would be your second choice?

“New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s support (5 percent) for the Republican presidential nomination has eroded from the previous Saint Leo quarterly poll in December 2014 (12 percent), while U.S. Senator Marco Rubio’s potential candidacy gained considerable ground (from 5 percent in December, to 16 percent in March). However, he still trails frontrunner Jeb Bush (31 percent) by double digits (15 points),” commented Saint Leo’s Orlando.

Regardless of whom you personally support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?

About the Saint Leo University Polling Institute/Methodology

This Saint Leo University poll of 1,016 people nationally (809 likely voters) was conducted between March 15 – March 19, 2015. An additional 522 Floridians (433 likely voters) were surveyed between March 15 – 21, 2015. The margin of error on political questions (of likely voters only) is approximately 4 percent +/- on the national survey and 5 percent +/- on the Florida poll, with a 95 percent confidence level. Margin of error will be greater for smaller sub groups. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allows for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive – usually $1 dollar deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account – for their participation.

About Saint Leo University

Saint Leo University is a regionally accredited, liberal-arts-based institution known for an inclusive Catholic heritage, enduring values, and capacity for innovation. The school was chartered in 1889 by Catholic Benedictine monks in rural Pasco County, FL, making Saint Leo the first Catholic college in the state. Over its more than 125-year history, Saint Leo has provided access to education to people of all faiths, emphasizing the Benedictine philosophy of balanced growth of mind, body, and spirit.

Today the university welcomes learners from all generations and backgrounds, from civilian occupations and the armed forces, and from across the country and more than 60 nations around the world. Saint Leo’s 16,000 undergraduate and graduate students may elect to study at the beautiful University Campus in Florida, at more than 40 teaching locations in seven states, or online from other locations. The university’s degree programs range from the associate to the doctorate. Throughout these rich offerings, Saint Leo develops principled leaders for a challenging world.

Saint Leo University boasts more than 70,000 alumni in all 50 states, Washington, DC, three U.S. territories, and 70 countries.

Media Contacts: Kim Payne, staff writer and media coordinator, at kim.payne@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-7233/(717) 798-1508 or Jo-Ann Johnston, academic communications manager, at jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-8237/(352) 467-0843.