Clinton Carries Florida vs All GOP Nominees – Except Jeb

Florida Democrats are ready to make Hillary Clinton their party’s nominee for president, and Clinton would carry Florida in the general election against all but one potential Republican opponent, a new poll by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute has found.

Clinton is the first choice of 67 percent of Florida Democrats to by the party’s nominee, the poll found. Vice President Joe Biden came in second with 7 percent, though he is the second choice of 25 percent of Florida voters.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is the top choice of Florida Republicans, if he runs for president. One-third of Florida Republicans (33 percent) named Bush as their first pick from a list of 16 potential candidates. U.S Senator Marco Rubio of Florida (12 percent) was second, followed by retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson (9 percent), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (7 percent) and U.S. Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas (4 percent each).

“Florida continues to be a bellwether for national politics. “It’s not surprising that their ‘favorite son’ [Jeb Bush] would do well in the Sunshine State,” said Frank Orlando, instructor of political science at Saint Leo University. “Because of its diverse demographic population [including a significant number of northern ‘transplants’], Florida voters are more highly attuned to the political scene and have a more nuanced perspective that allows for fine-grained assessments,” continued Orlando.

In general election match-ups against six potential Republican nominees, Clinton would carry Florida against all of them – except Bush. In trial heats:

  • Jeb Bush would defeat Hillary Clinton, 46-44 percent (2 points)
  • Clinton defeats former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, 47-40 percent (7 points)
  • Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 49-41 percent (8 points)
  • Clinton defeats U.S. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 50-40 percent(10 points)
  • Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, 50-38 percent (12 points)
  • Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 52-36 percent (16 points)

To view poll results click here.

About the Saint Leo University Polling Institute/Methodology

This Saint Leo University poll of 500 Florida residents, including 402 likely voters, was conducted between May 28 and June 4, 2014. The margin of error is approximately 5 percent +/- with a 95 percent confidence level. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. Sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantages of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive – usually 50 cents deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account – for their participation.

About Saint Leo University

Saint Leo University is a regionally accredited, liberal-arts-based institution known for an inclusive Catholic heritage, enduring values, and capacity for innovation. The school was chartered in 1889 by Catholic Benedictine monks in rural Pasco County, FL, making Saint Leo the first Catholic college in the state. Over its 125-year history, Saint Leo has provided access to education to people of all faiths, emphasizing the Benedictine philosophy of balanced growth of mind, body, and spirit.
Today the university welcomes learners from all generations and backgrounds, from civilian occupations and the armed forces, and from all 50 states and more than 60 nations. Saint Leo’s 16,000 undergraduate and graduate students may elect to study at the beautiful University Campus in Florida, at more than 40 teaching locations in seven states, or online from other locations. The university’s degree programs range from the associate to the doctorate. Throughout these rich offerings, Saint Leo develops principled leaders for a challenging world.

Media Contacts: Kim Payne, staff writer and media coordinator, at kim.payne@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-7233/(717) 798-1508 or Jo-Ann Johnston, academic communications manager, at jo-ann.johnston@saintleo.edu or (352) 588-8237/(352) 467-0843.